The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to about ₦950 per litre in 2026, based on assumptions outlined in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook. The projection is anchored on an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel, domestic crude production of about 1.5 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of ₦1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and ₦1,400/$ in 2026. The apex bank said improved foreign exchange market efficiency, stronger capital inflows and a current account surplus would support exchange rate stability, while increased private-sector investment in domestic refining would help contain energy costs. Under these conditions, the CBN expects PMS prices to hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026, alongside improved supply driven by rising crude output, better security around oil assets and expanding refining capacity.
Despite the projection, current pump prices remain below the forecast level following recent price cuts by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The refinery’s ex-gantry price stands at ₦699 per litre, with its authorised distributor, MRS Oil, retailing petrol at ₦739 per litre, a move that forced rival marketers to lower prices to retain customers. The CBN also projected headline inflation to ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026 from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, citing lower food prices and easing PMS costs driven by increased competition in the midstream sector. However, Dangote has warned that petrol prices could surge to as high as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy reliance on fuel imports, stressing that large-scale local production has helped stabilise the downstream market and reduce price volatility.
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