A new six-year study by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa says 79,323 people were killed and 34,773 abducted in terrorism-related violence in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, with the report attributing the largest share of civilian deaths to groups it labels “Fulani Terror Groups” rather than Boko Haram or ISWAP.
The numbers are staggering, and so are the claims behind them.
A six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) has found that 79,323 people were killed in terrorism-related violence across Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, alongside 34,773 civilian abductions. The findings, unveiled in a report titled “Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence,” were announced in a statement signed by ORFA Senior Research Analyst, Frans Vierhout, in Jos.
According to Vanguard,the report puts the violence at an average of seven attacks and 36 deaths daily. Of the total deaths, 42,033 were civilians, while 37,290 involved security personnel and armed group members.
ORFA said its researchers spent years cross-checking attack patterns, and the results challenge popular assumptions about who’s driving Nigeria’s insecurity. According to the report, Boko Haram and ISWAP — often framed as the dominant threats — accounted for just 12 per cent of civilian deaths combined (Boko Haram 8%, ISWAP 4%). Groups the report classifies as “Fulani Terror Groups,” it claims, were responsible for 44 per cent of civilian killings — 18,577 deaths — compared to 4,941 attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP together.
ORFA was careful to draw a line between armed groups and the broader Fulani ethnic population, stressing most Fulani people have no involvement in the violence.
Vierhout explained the methodology: “We examined how killings occur, who is targeted, where attacks take place and seasonal fluctuations. The evidence points strongly in one direction.”
On kidnappings, the report attributes 43 per cent of the 34,773 cases to “Fulani Terror Groups” and 49 per cent to “Unidentified Terror Groups.”
The report also flags a religious pattern, stating 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed during the period, with ORFA claiming Christian victims died at a higher rate relative to population size in affected states.
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