The ripple effects of escalating hostilities in the Middle East have hit Nigerian pumps, driving petrol prices as high as N1,100 per litre and threatening to trigger a fresh wave of food and transport inflation across the country.
Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery is facing a major setback as escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have pushed global crude oil prices toward $100 per barrel. This international surge has directly impacted domestic fuel costs, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices climbing to between N1,020 and N1,100 per litre at retail outlets in major cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has clarified that these variations are driven by market dynamics and “supply and demand” within a deregulated environment, rather than regulatory interference, as refiners and marketers adjust to the rising cost of international feedstock.
The impact of the hike is being felt most acutely in the transportation and agricultural sectors, where rising costs are quickly being passed on to consumers. In Lagos, independent marketers like Mobil and MRS are dispensing fuel at prices as high as N1,100, while the Dangote Refinery recently adjusted its gantry price to N995 per litre to reflect global realities. “Energy costs have a strong multiplier effect. Rising pump prices feed directly into food distribution and manufacturing. Inflationary pressure intensifies, and households feel it immediately,” noted Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. With the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping route—facing potential closure, industry experts warn that petrol could reach N1,500 per litre if the regional conflict persists.
While the Federal Government may see a short-term boost in revenue as crude prices soar above the 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85, economists warn that the gains are a double-edged sword. Despite the increased foreign exchange inflows, the higher cost of imported refined products and surging freight insurance rates are expected to “reverse the hard-won progress” against domestic food inflation. As the Middle East war enters its second week, the Nigerian government is reportedly reviewing fiscal options to cushion the shock, as residents in cities like Port Harcourt and Yenagoa prepare for even tighter household budgets in the weeks ahead.
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