A gambler reportedly earned nearly $436,000 by placing bets on the arrest of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the capture was publicly announced by former US President Donald Trump. Activity on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket showed a sudden surge in wagers predicting Maduro’s removal from power in the hours leading up to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social. The winning account, created last month, placed four bets on Venezuela with an initial stake of $32,537, though the identity of the bettor remains unknown and is linked only to an anonymous blockchain address.
Polymarket data indicated that the likelihood of Maduro leaving office was just 6.5 per cent on the afternoon of 2 January, rising to 11 per cent shortly before midnight and surging further in the early hours of 3 January. Experts have raised concerns that the timing and scale of the bets suggest the possible use of insider information. Dennis Kelleher, CEO of advocacy group Better Markets, said the activity “has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.” Several other users also recorded gains of tens of thousands of dollars, prompting US lawmakers to act: on Monday, Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to ban government employees from trading on prediction markets using material nonpublic information.