Astronomers say asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of hitting the Moon in 2032, prompting talk of a nuclear “disruption mission.”
Astronomers are weighing a nuclear “kinetic disruption mission” to blow up asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 4 per cent chance of hitting the Moon in December 2032.
The 65-metre-wide rock, first flagged in 2024, was initially thought to threaten Earth. Updated data shows its Earth impact risk is almost negligible, but scientists warn a lunar strike could create a 1km-wide crater and a debris cloud of more than 100 million kilograms, potentially damaging satellites and spacecraft.
Researchers, including NASA experts, assessed three options: reconnaissance, deflection, and destruction. They concluded that “deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical.”
Instead, they propose sending two 100-kiloton nuclear devices—five to eight times stronger than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki—to shatter the rock.
Such a mission would take five to seven years to prepare, with the next feasible launch window between 2029 and 2031. Scientists say success could set a precedent for defending Earth against future asteroid threats.