In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV forbade all betting on the election of the pope, under penalty of excommunication.
As the papal conclave convenes to prayerfully discern the next bishop of Rome, a parallel world of speculation thrives. The blockchain-based platform Polymarket has seen over $3 million wagered on the outcome. Italy’s Pietro Parolin and the Philippines’ Luis Antonio Tagle currently lead betting odds.
“Financial speculation fundamentally aimed at quick profit continues to wreak havoc,” Pope Francis once said, rejecting market-based solutions for moral decisions. Though outlawed by Pope Gregory XIV in 1591, betting on conclaves is now canonically unregulated. Still, prediction markets rarely forecast papal outcomes correctly. In 2013, Jorge Bergoglio ranked 15th.
