The IMF projects Nigeria’s economy will rebound to 4.3 percent growth by 2027, exceeding the growth rates of many advanced nations despite a downward revision for 2026 caused by global conflict and rising commodity costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.3 percent in 2027, outpacing major advanced economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom, despite a recent downgrade to 4.1 percent for 2026. Announced during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington DC, the forecast reflects a recovery from “war-related higher fuel and fertiliser prices and higher shipping costs” that have hampered oil activity, according to Deniz Igan, division chief in the IMF’s research department.
While Nigeria shows resilience, the broader global outlook is more somber, with the IMF projecting a global growth contraction of 3.1 percent in 2026 due to disruptions from Middle East conflicts and rising inflation. Igan emphasized that for Nigeria to reach its single-digit inflation goals, “watching very carefully both exchange rate movements and inflation expectations is going to be crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank,” while IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas called for a swift end to hostilities to normalize volatile energy markets.