Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 has drawn mixed reactions from economic experts, who warn that projected macroeconomic gains may not translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for the majority of citizens. While recent forecasts — including projections that Nigeria’s GDP could grow by around 4.3 per cent in 2026 — suggest moderate expansion driven by stronger oil and non‑oil sectors, consumer confidence and investment activity, analysts caution that pervasive structural challenges may blunt the impact on poverty and employment. PwC’s Economic Outlook 2026 report, for instance, predicts GDP growth of about 4.3 per cent this year but underscores persistent fiscal risks and weak income gains despite stabilising inflation and a broadly steady naira.
Experts say that without targeted policy action, many Nigerians may see little relief from economic hardship. Professor Akpan Ekpo of the Foundation for Economic Research and Training maintained that marginal GDP gains are likely to benefit mostly the elite and stressed that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly unless growth reaches double digits and is sustained over the long term, coupled with deliberate policies to enhance productivity and diversify away from oil dependence. He pointed to constraints such as high cost of governance, weak manufacturing, limited SME credit, unreliable power, and insecurity as key barriers to inclusive growth. Observers also note broader concerns about rising poverty levels, with some international forecasts projecting poverty rates of over 60 per cent in 2026 if current trends persist.