Analysts say Kwankwaso’s move to the ADC could split opposition votes, disrupt coalition unity and potentially benefit Tinubu and the APC in 2027.
The defection of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso from the New Nigeria Peoples Party to the African Democratic Congress has sparked debate among analysts over its possible impact on the 2027 elections. Observers say the move could indirectly favour Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress if opposition forces fail to unite.
Analysts warn that Kwankwaso’s entry into the ADC may further fragment the opposition vote, as multiple presidential hopefuls compete within the same coalition. With figures such as Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi also linked to the coalition platform, concerns have emerged that rival ambitions could weaken the bloc’s ability to present a unified candidate.
Political analyst Olajumoke Victor said the development could still strengthen the party if unity is maintained, noting: “This could strengthen the party, especially if it succeeds in building a united front with other opposition groups.” However, observers say potential internal disputes over party control and presidential tickets could undermine the ADC’s effectiveness against the ruling party.