A beer parlour analyst’s theory that Peter Obi’s potential vice-presidential slot under 81-year-old Atiku Abubakar could be a calculated genius move—banking on age, incapacitation, or a single-term promise to eventually inherit the presidency—may contain more strategic wisdom than the emotional reactions of his supporters suggest.
by Nij Martin
Three friends sat nursing their drinks at a beer parlour somewhere in mainland Lagos on the night Peter Obi officially declared for the African Democratic Congress. As the television above the bar replayed footage of the Enugu rally, the eldest of the trio—a man whose grey beard suggested he’d witnessed more than a few election cycles—made a submission that cut through the heated debate about whether Obi had betrayed his supporters or made a strategic masterstroke.
His calculation was brutally simple: Atiku Abubakar will be 81 years old when he takes office in 2027, assuming he wins the ADC presidential ticket and defeats President Bola Tinubu. At that advanced age, anything can happen. Atiku could serve one term as promised and hand over to Obi. He could become incapacitated during his tenure. He could resign due to health challenges. Or he could simply be unable to function effectively, forcing a constitutional succession that would elevate his vice president to the top job.
In short, Peter Obi accepting a vice-presidential slot under Atiku isn’t capitulation—it’s calculated patience. And the beer parlour analyst might just be onto something that the louder voices in Nigerian politics are missing.
The Mathematics of Age and Mortality
Let’s start with the cold, actuarial facts that our beer parlour strategist intuitively grasped. Atiku will turn 81 in November 2027, just months after potentially taking office. While many octogenarians remain mentally sharp and physically active, the statistical reality is unforgiving: advancing age brings increased health vulnerabilities, reduced stamina, and higher mortality rates.
The presidency is not a ceremonial position. It requires grueling travel schedules, marathon negotiation sessions, crisis management at odd hours, and the physical and mental endurance to make life-and-death decisions under extreme pressure. Even younger presidents have visibly aged during their tenures. The question isn’t whether Atiku is capable now—it’s whether he can sustain that capability for four full years at an age when most people are enjoying retirement.
Public affairs analyst Jide Ojo touched on this possibility during a Channels Television appearance, speculating that “there could be an understanding that the party’s most prominent member, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, may step down for Obi, thereby paving the way for him to emerge as the party’s presidential candidate.” But Ojo’s analysis focused on a pre-election arrangement. The beer parlour theory is more coldly pragmatic: even if Atiku wins the ticket and the election, biology and age may still hand Obi the presidency mid-term.
The Single-Term Promise as Insurance Policy
Atiku has publicly committed to serving only one term if elected president. This promise, repeated multiple times, isn’t mere political rhetoric—it’s a recognition of his age and a strategic concession designed to win over younger politicians and regions demanding their turn at leadership.
For Obi, this promise represents insurance. If Atiku honors his word, Obi would be positioned as the natural successor in 2031, having served as vice president and gained executive experience at the federal level. He would inherit Atiku’s political structures, benefit from any achievements of the administration, and position himself as the continuity candidate while being significantly younger and more energetic than his predecessor.
The alternative calculation—one that the beer parlour analyst laid out—is even more stark for Obi. If he contests and loses in 2027, the presidency will almost certainly rotate back to the North in 2031. That would push the next realistic opportunity for a Southeast candidate to 2039, when Obi would be 77 years old—roughly the same age Atiku is now. The window for Obi’s presidential ambitions would have effectively closed.
By contrast, accepting the VP slot gives Obi multiple paths to the presidency: Atiku’s single-term promise, potential incapacitation, or constitutional succession. It’s not capitulation; it’s keeping options open.
The Precedent of Constitutional Succession
Nigeria’s political history offers instructive examples of vice presidents who ascended to the top job through constitutional succession rather than electoral victory. When President Umaru Yar’Adua died in office in 2010, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan assumed the presidency and went on to win election in his own right in 2011.
The lesson is clear: the vice presidency isn’t necessarily a dead end. It can be a pathway to power, particularly when the president faces health challenges or other circumstances that trigger succession. For a politician like Obi, who claims to prioritize service over personal ambition, the VP role offers a legitimate avenue to eventually lead while also building governing experience and maintaining political relevance.
Pat Utomi, the political economist and Obi ally, has categorically stated: “I can tell you that Peter Obi will contest for the presidency. The day he becomes somebody’s vice president, I walk away from his corner.” But Utomi’s emotional response may reflect supporter sentiment more than strategic calculation. Politics isn’t always about charging straight at your goal—sometimes the indirect route is more effective.
The Electoral Mathematics That Everyone Ignores
ADC chieftain Ladan Salihu made an observation that should make every serious political analyst pause: “The two put together in the last presidential elections in 2023 had about 63% of the total presidential votes.” He was referring to the combined vote tallies of Atiku’s PDP and Obi’s Labour Party.
If those votes could be consolidated behind a single ticket—an Atiku-Obi ticket—the opposition would present the most formidable challenge to Tinubu and the APC in 2027. Atiku brings structures, experience, Northern reach, and establishment credibility. Obi brings youth appeal, Southeast mobilization, urban support, and the passionate “Obidient” base that transformed Nigerian politics in 2023.
The beer parlour analyst understood what many refuse to acknowledge: winning requires coalition-building and compromise. Neither Atiku nor Obi can defeat Tinubu alone. Together, they might. And if that coalition requires Obi to accept second billing temporarily, it’s a calculation worth making—especially given Atiku’s age and single-term promise.
Why Supporters Resist the Logic
The emotional resistance to Obi accepting a VP role comes from several sources. First, the “Obidient” movement has cultivated a messianic narrative around Obi as Nigeria’s savior. Accepting subordinate status challenges that narrative and feels like a betrayal of the movement’s aspirations.
Second, there’s historical grievance. Many supporters believe Obi was robbed of victory in 2023 and that accepting a VP slot validates that alleged theft. Why should the “real winner” serve as deputy to someone who came second?
Third, there’s legitimate concern about being used. Minister of Aviation Festus Keyamo articulated this cynically but effectively when he suggested Atiku wants to “camouflage with Peter Obi and surreptitiously secure his votes and become President on a flawed template,” adding that “Peter Obi is supporting this contraption for selfish reasons—throwing the entire country under the bus for a mess of pottage called a VP ticket.”
But these emotional responses ignore the brutal pragmatism that actually wins elections and eventually secures power. The beer parlour analyst wasn’t caught up in narratives or grievances—he was reading the board clearly and seeing moves that others missed.
The Critics Who Might Be Proven Wrong
Political economist Pat Utomi insisted that “Nobody above the age of 70 should contest for executive positions, whether as a governor or president.” If he’s right, then the entire premise of an Atiku presidency becomes questionable, and supporting an 81-year-old candidate makes little sense regardless of who his running mate is.
But if Atiku does win the ADC ticket and runs in 2027, Obi’s calculation may prove correct: serve as VP to a very elderly president with a single-term commitment, position yourself as heir apparent, and be ready to assume power either through natural succession after four years or through constitutional means if circumstances intervene.
The Lagos APC’s statement calling Obi’s ADC move “a pattern of convenience politics masquerading as principle” may contain a grain of truth, but convenience and principle aren’t always opposites in politics. Sometimes the most principled thing a leader can do is make strategic compromises that advance larger goals—like defeating an incumbent administration they believe is harming the country.
Why the Beer Parlour Analyst Deserves Credit
Our unnamed beer parlour strategist—nursing his drink and calmly laying out the age-and-succession calculation—represents a type of political wisdom that often gets drowned out by social media noise and partisan cheerleading. He wasn’t engaging in hero worship or demonization. He was simply reading the political chessboard several moves ahead.
His analysis incorporated variables that matter but that many refuse to acknowledge: actuarial realities, constitutional succession mechanisms, single-term promises, regional rotation expectations, and the cold mathematics of coalition-building. He understood that politics is about power and that there are multiple paths to acquiring it.
If Peter Obi does end up as Atiku’s running mate—something he has publicly denied but which remains a possibility depending on ADC primary outcomes—the beer parlour analyst’s reasoning will deserve revisiting. The move that looks like defeat today could prove to be strategic genius tomorrow, particularly if biology, age, or political circumstances elevate Obi to the presidency during or after Atiku’s term.
Final Thoughts: The Wisdom of Indirect Routes
Nigerian politics loves grand narratives and dramatic gestures. But actual political success often comes through indirect routes, strategic patience, and calculated compromises that purists condemn but that pragmatists understand.
The beer parlour analyst’s theory—that Obi accepting a VP slot under the elderly Atiku could be genius rather than capitulation—deserves more consideration than it’s receiving. At 81, Atiku represents both an opportunity and a liability. His experience and structures could help defeat Tinubu, but his age creates natural succession possibilities that could benefit a patient running mate.
Whether Obi ultimately accepts such a role remains unclear. He has categorically stated he will be on the 2027 ballot as a presidential candidate, not as anyone’s deputy. But political positions are often fluid until primaries conclude and deals are finalized.
If the elderly beer parlour analyst’s calculation proves correct—if Obi does end up as Atiku’s VP and eventually assumes the presidency through succession—his patient friends sharing that mainland Lagos table will have the last laugh. Sometimes the wisdom of the beer parlour beats the noise of social media, and sometimes indirect routes lead more surely to destinations than frontal assaults.
In 2027, or perhaps sooner, we’ll know whether our anonymous beer parlour strategist was a genius or just another armchair analyst with too much time and too much beer. But his calculation deserves acknowledgment: in a game as complex as Nigerian presidential politics, the move that looks like defeat today might be revealed as genius tomorrow. And age, as they say, is just a number—until suddenly, in politics and in life, it becomes the most important number of all.