Vladimir Putin’s recent incursion of drones into Polish airspace is a deliberate signal that his war against the West is escalating and will not end soon. Analysts assert that Putin has fashioned himself as a “president of war,” and returning to peace would be a political demotion. His survival depends on catering to hardline nationalists who demand victory over NATO, not just Ukraine. This act of hybrid warfare tests NATO’s resolve, aiming to portray the alliance as weak. With Western responses appearing hesitant, Putin is emboldened to continue his provocative, long-term confrontation.
When Vladimir Putin sent at least 19 drones into Poland last week, the Russian president was delivering a message: He’s not planning to end his war against the West anytime soon.
The Russian incursion into NATO airspace follows weeks of aerial attacks in Ukraine that killed dozens of civilians, damaged buildings housing the EU and British delegations and struck for the first time a government building in central Kyiv.
Far from being ready to strike a peace deal with Ukraine under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin has pegged his political survival to a simmering conflict with the United States and its allies.
“Putin is the president of war,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior analyst at the London-based New Eurasian Strategies Center. “He has no interest in ending it.”
Having fashioned himself as a wartime leader, going back to being a peacetime president would be tantamount to a demotion. “No matter what the conditions are, he cannot give up that role,” Petrov said.