The Katsina State Government’s plan to release 70 detained bandits as part of a peace deal has sparked nationwide outrage from socio-political groups, security experts, and victims’ advocates who argue the move rewards violence, undermines justice, emboldens criminality, and repeats the failures of previous amnesty programs across Nigeria’s northwest that collapsed within months and led to renewed attacks.
by Nij Martin
The Katsina State Government wants to release 70 suspected bandits as part of a “peace deal.” Let me say this plainly: this is madness dressed up as policy. While Nigerian soldiers are dying in Zamfara, Kaduna, and Niger State fighting these same criminals, Katsina wants to throw open the prison gates and declare peace in our time. The state Commissioner for Internal Security, Dr. Nasir Mu’azu Danmusa, says this is like “wartime prisoner exchange.” Really? In a proper war, you exchange soldiers—uniformed combatants fighting for recognized authorities. What Katsina is doing is releasing kidnappers, murderers, and rapists who’ve terrorized communities for years. These aren’t prisoners of war. They’re common criminals who happen to carry AK-47s instead of cutlasses.
The leaked letter from the Ministry of Justice—marked “SECRET” because they knew Nigerians would be outraged—reveals the whole charade. Forty-eight suspects facing banditry charges. Another 22 inmates in various high courts. All to be released because bandits promised to be good boys this time. How many times will we fall for this scam? This isn’t the first rodeo for Nigeria’s northwest states, and the record is catastrophically clear: bandit amnesty programs don’t work. They never have. They never will. Yet here we are again, watching another state government repeat the same failed playbook while expecting different results.
The Catastrophic Record of Amnesty Deals
Let’s review the evidence, shall we? Zamfara State first experimented with bandit amnesty in 2016 through an agreement with notorious bandit leader Buharin Daji. The truce, brokered by former Governor Abdulaziz Yari, saw fighters surrender stolen cattle and a few weapons in exchange for cash. By 2017, over a thousand young men had sworn off violence in ceremonies repeated across Katsina and Sokoto. The agreement was badly administered and fell apart when Daji—who was made a special government advisor and put on a stipend—was killed by rival bandits. In 2019, Zamfara’s new governor, Bello Matawalle, revived the policy with a “cows-for-guns” deal. Hundreds of hostages were freed, and repentant fighters paraded for the media. Yet these gestures rewarded impunity more than they restored security. As critics warned at the time, many of those who had signed up for peace returned to the bush and resumed their lucrative violence. Markets closed, villages were torched, and farmers were again forced to flee their fields or pay taxes to competing bandits. By September 2021, Matawalle publicly declared the bandits had betrayed every agreement.
Neighboring Katsina has experienced a similar story. In October 2019, the government granted amnesty to armed groups in exchange for the release of 70 captives. During the ceremony, the bandits turned in just two AK-47 rifles. The governor promised rehabilitation and reintegration. Yet within months, residents reported fresh attacks. Sokoto State has also been down this road. Its first recorded peace agreement was in 2016, in the Isa district, but it collapsed almost immediately. Another attempt in 2019 suffered the same fate. Community leaders described the deals as nothing more than “a chance for the bandits to show us that the government needs them more than they need the government.”
So why does Katsina think it will be different this time? The definition of insanity, as the saying goes, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The Katsina government claims 1,000 abducted persons were released through these negotiations across 15 local governments. That sounds impressive until you ask: how many of those people were kidnapped in the first place because bandits knew they could get away with it? How many families sold everything they owned—land, cattle, jewelry—to raise ransoms of 5 million, 10 million naira?
The Message This Sends
Let’s be brutally honest about what message this amnesty sends. To Nigeria’s military, it says: “The soldiers fighting alongside you who died last month in Katsina? Their sacrifice meant nothing. We’re releasing the enemy anyway.” Defence Minister Christopher Musa recently warned that negotiating with bandits only emboldened them and complicates security efforts. By releasing these suspects, the state government stands with the bandits, not with the security forces risking their lives.
To communities, it says: “Your trauma doesn’t matter. Reconciliation with killers is more important than justice for victims.” Imagine you’re a farmer in Faskari or Sabuwa. Bandits invade your village at 3 AM. They kill your brother. They take your daughter. You spend three months begging, borrowing, selling your farm to raise the ransom. You get her back—traumatized, possibly pregnant, definitely changed forever. Then the state government announces it’s releasing the same bandits because of a “peace accord.” How would you feel? A religious leader in Katsina metropolis, Malam Umar Usman, captured this sentiment perfectly: “How can we, as religious leaders, support this dangerous move? Those who killed and destroyed communities should face the full wrath of the law. Honestly, we are not in support.”
To other bandits across the northwest, it says: “Kidnap more. Kill more. The government will eventually negotiate.” Human rights activist Deji Adeyanju warned that “the continued negotiation, payment, forgiveness, and appeasement of bandits and terrorists by the government amounts to indirect financing of terrorism.” He’s absolutely right. When you reward violence with freedom and concessions, you incentivize more violence. Security expert Dr. Ken Nnanna reminded the Katsina state government that such peace deals “could encourage more people to take up arms against the government.” He noted that “paying ransom and granting amnesty to bandits will have multiplier effects which other bandits will see as an opportunity to take up arms as it is happening now.”
Why These Deals Always Fail
There are structural reasons why amnesty programs for bandits consistently fail. First, the gunmen set the terms. In most truce talks, fighters keep their weapons and mobility. Dialogue becomes leverage to win safe passage, taxation rights, or space to rearm. Second, state governments mistake performance for peace. Photo-ops with clerics, rows of surrendered rifles, or headlines that a kingpin has “promised” to let farmers work are treated as outcomes. Yet abductions, closures of rural markets, and school kidnappings continue to occur. Third, there is no accountability. Commanders with long records of attacks are often courted as stakeholders, not prosecuted.
Professor Marcus Ardo of Gombe State University’s Department of Peace and Conflict Studies explained that “peace deals with bandits in Northern Nigeria have a calamitous record because most of them are badly administered.” Colonel Michael Oguntimo (retd.), a military officer who served in theater operations across Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi states, described the typical pattern: “A notorious warlord or group of commanders sits across from government officials or clerics. They make public declarations of repentance, often swearing on the Koran and conduct a ceremonial handing over of a token number of weapons – sometimes rusty old rifles. Captives are released in staged ceremonies. Government leaders hail these moments as breakthroughs, but within months, the violence returns, worse than before.”
The fundamental problem is that an estimated 30,000 gunmen are active in the northwest, operating in more than 100 gangs. They function through loose networks with no single chain of command, no common ideology, and no way to bind everyone to a deal. Even when one group signs a peace agreement, others continue attacking. And even within groups that sign, individual commanders often ignore the agreement and return to crime when it suits them.
The Human Cost
While policymakers debate the merits of dialogue versus force, real people are suffering. Katsina State has seen over 1,500 civilians killed between 2021 and 2025. Across the northwest, at least 670,000 people have been displaced from their homes. The violence has triggered alarming levels of food insecurity and turned the region into Nigeria’s kidnap capital. Group Captain Abubakar Girma (retd.) urged the Katsina state government not to reward killers with a peace deal, emphasizing that “any peace built on appeasing violent actors is fragile and unsustainable.” He continued: “Many northern families, for more than a decade, have lived through unrelenting violence, massacres, kidnappings, burned villages, and the forced displacement of entire communities. As we speak, millions of Nigerians remain uprooted, scattered across camps and temporary shelters. Children have grown up in IDP settlements, never once stepping onto the farmland their parents once owned, countless women have buried husbands, and parents have mourned children lost to attacks that could have been prevented.”
Aminu Jafaru, a ward head in the Modoji area of Katsina, warned of possible reprisals if the bandits are released: “If these bandits are released, they will go after security operatives and those who gave information against them — village heads, ward heads and traditional leaders. Our people believe they will not stop their nefarious activities.” A youth leader in Kankara, speaking anonymously, said residents were preparing legal action: “These bandits killed, raped and collected millions in ransom from us. The government cannot just set them free. If this release goes ahead, we will seek redress in court.”
National Outrage
The proposed amnesty has sparked condemnation from across Nigeria’s socio-political landscape. Pan-Yoruba organization Afenifere’s Organizing Secretary, Abagun Omololu, said: “Afenifere Think Tank unequivocally rejects the reported plan by the Katsina State Government to release seventy bandits under the guise of a so-called peace arrangement. This proposal is reckless, irresponsible and profoundly dangerous to national security.” The Arewa Consultative Forum’s National Publicity Secretary, Prof. Tukur Muhammad-Baba, warned: “The danger is that they may develop a sense of invincibility and feel encouraged to return to criminal activities. Government actions must reflect strength, not weakness.”
The Coalition of Northern Groups, through its National Coordinator Jamilu Charanchi, described the plan as “a dangerous capitulation disguised as peace-building,” stating: “While CNG recognises the urgent need to end the bloodshed, kidnappings and destruction ravaging Katsina State and the wider North-West, we maintain that peace built on appeasement, judicial compromise and concessions to violent criminals is neither sustainable nor just.” The Middle Belt Forum’s National President, Dr. Bitrus Pogu, called for federal intervention: “People are killing, maiming and displacing innocent citizens, and instead of prosecuting them, the government is negotiating with them. This is unfortunate and dangerous. The Federal Government must intervene because Nigeria cannot continue on this path.”
Even Ohanaeze Ndigbo leaders warned that the decision could have ripple effects across the country. Former Vice-President Chief Silas Okeke stated: “Whatever happens in the North will affect other regions. Some of the bandits might run to other regions on being released and continue with their criminality.”
What Should Happen Instead
The policy takeaway is not that dialogue is impossible, but that the northwest’s version has inverted the proper sequence. Retired Commodore Omatseye Nesiama (retd.) emphasized that addressing the crisis “requires decisive and sustained security countermeasures to regain the initiative and weaken the resolve of bandit groups. Such actions should lead to casualties and arrests, including the prosecution of high-profile figures or a critical mass of bandit members. This is what creates the conditions for negotiation from a position of strength.” He added: “The key issue is creating a favourable environment in which negotiations are conducted from a position of strength, not weakness.”
Here’s what should happen instead of this reckless release: First, suspend this ridiculous amnesty program immediately. Those 70 suspects should face trial. If the evidence is weak, the courts will discharge them. If they’re guilty, they belong in prison. That’s how justice works. Second, disarmament must be real, visible, and verified. Protection of witnesses and communities must precede any granting of safe passage to bandits. Third, payments—whether by governments or communities—should be treated as extortion, documented, and prosecuted. Where talks continue, they need hard conditions: mapped command structures, third-party monitoring, deadlines for weapons hand-ins, clear sanctions for violations, and a parallel track for victim restitution.
Fourth, invest the energy spent on “peace deals” into supporting military operations. Give our troops better equipment, intelligence, and logistical support. Fifth, strengthen community defense initiatives. Arm and train local vigilantes legally so communities can defend themselves while waiting for security forces. And finally—this is crucial—the government must stop treating banditry as a negotiable conflict. These are criminals, not rebel movements with political grievances. You don’t make peace with kidnappers. You arrest them.
The Bottom Line
Some will argue that dialogue is better than endless bloodshed. I understand the impulse. Nobody wants perpetual war. But dialogue only works when both sides genuinely want peace. Bandits have proven repeatedly they don’t. They use negotiations to regroup, rearm, and plan the next attack. Every peace deal is just an operational pause before they resume terror. The families burying loved ones killed by bandits don’t want peace deals. They want justice. The parents whose children were abducted and returned damaged don’t want reconciliation with kidnappers. They want accountability. The communities that have been terrorized for years don’t want dialogue with criminals. They want security.
Defence Minister Musa said the choice is clear: anyone defending or excusing criminals through words, influence, or silence shares responsibility for their actions. By that standard, the Katsina State Government has blood on its hands. Because when these 70 released suspects return to the forests (and they will), when they resume kidnapping (and they will), every single victim can trace their suffering back to this decision. This peace deal won’t work. It never has. It never will. The only language bandits understand is force. Until Katsina learns that lesson, the violence will continue. The kidnappings will persist. And more innocent people will pay the price for their government’s delusions.