The Kano earthquake: Why Governor Abba Yusuf’s move to APC won’t determine 2027

The Kano earthquake: Why Governor Abba Yusuf’s move to APC won’t determine 2027

Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf’s defection from the NNPP to the APC has sparked fierce criticism from opposition parties who insist elite political maneuvers won’t translate to electoral victory in 2027, while his former party warns that history shows voters punish political betrayal.

by Nij Martin

A Political Earthquake in Kano

The political landscape of Nigeria’s most populous northern state shifted dramatically this week as Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf officially abandoned the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The defection, which brings along 22 state assembly members, eight federal representatives, and all 44 local government chairmen, represents one of the most significant political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections. Yet beneath the surface of what the APC celebrates as a homecoming lies a storm of accusations, historical warnings, and fundamental questions about loyalty, mandate, and the true nature of political power in Nigeria.

For opposition parties—particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Labour Party (LP)—Governor Yusuf’s move represents not strength but moral bankruptcy. They argue that the recent wave of defections, which has seen numerous PDP governors including Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Peter Mbah of Enugu, and most recently Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State join the APC, reflects desperation rather than genuine political realignment.

The Moral Argument: Betrayal of the Electoral Mandate

At the heart of the opposition’s critique lies a simple but powerful argument: governors elected on one platform have no moral right to switch parties mid-term. PDP National Publicity Secretary Ini Ememobong articulated this position forcefully in his response to the defection.

“The troubling part is that this is not how the system is supposed to work. It does not address the issue of people who were elected, nor does it speak to the promises that were made. There are moral questions involved. A social contract exists between elected officials and the people, and that contract is entered into on the basis of a political party,” Ememobong stated.

He continued: “Once elected on that platform, it is morally wrong to abandon it midway. If you intend to contest another election, you should wait until the end of your tenure and then contest on another platform. Alternatively, you should vacate the office and allow the party on whose platform you were elected to retain the mandate, especially when the party you are joining was a fierce opponent.”

This argument resonates beyond partisan politics. When voters cast their ballots, they make decisions based on party manifestos, ideological positions, and perceived alignments. A governor’s defection effectively nullifies that choice, transferring power and resources to a party that may have been explicitly rejected by the electorate. The moral dimension becomes even sharper when considering that Governor Yusuf defeated APC candidates to win his position, only to now embrace the party he campaigned against.

The NNPP Response: Invoking Historical Memory

Perhaps the most stinging rebuke came from Governor Yusuf’s former party, the NNPP, which invoked a powerful historical precedent to warn against the political costs of betrayal. NNPP National Publicity Secretary Bamofin Ladipo Johnson drew parallels to a similar defection in Kano’s political history that ended in electoral humiliation.

“We deeply regret that Governor Abba, a man entrusted by the people of Kano State on the strength of his decades of unwavering loyalty and dedicated service to the Kwankwasiyya Movement, has now chosen to betray that sacred trust. By this action, he risks returning the state to the very forces that have long opposed its progress and the aspirations of its people,” Johnson said.

The NNPP pointed to the 1980s defection of Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, who left the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) for the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), taking with him nearly all elected officials in the state. The historical lesson is sobering: “In the 1983 gubernatorial election, Rimi was humiliatingly defeated by Mallam Aliyu Sabo Bakin Zuwo of the PRP, finishing second. Even more telling, of the 120 state assembly members who joined Rimi’s defection, only one was re-elected—an outcome that should serve as a sobering lesson to any politician contemplating the path of disloyalty.”

This historical reference serves as both warning and prophecy. It suggests that while political elites may defect, voters retain the final word. The NNPP’s invocation of this precedent is strategic, reminding Kano’s electorate that they have previously punished political opportunism at the ballot box.

Self-Preservation or Political Strategy?

The ADC’s Bolaji Abdullahi offered perhaps the most cynical interpretation of the defection wave, suggesting it stems from governors seeking protection rather than genuine political conviction.

“Well, obviously, we do not doubt that he is joining for the same reason other governors have joined: to seek protection. They all know that the easiest way to secure a second term is by joining the ruling party. They believe that is where they will get a free ride into a second term,” Abdullahi stated.

He added: “They also believe they are answering the call of the APC—that whoever joins their party, no matter how sinful he is, will have his sins forgiven. That is why they are joining. They are not joining because they believe what the ruling party is doing to their people is right, or because they care about the people. They do not care about the people; they only care about themselves. So we are not surprised.”

This interpretation frames the defections as transactional rather than ideological—governors calculating that alignment with federal power offers the best path to re-election and protection from potential accountability measures. The criticism cuts deep because it suggests these officials prioritize personal political survival over the mandates they received from voters.

The Electoral Reality Check

Despite the APC’s celebration of its growing numbers, opposition parties insist that elite defections don’t automatically translate to electoral dominance. PDP’s Ememobong made this point emphatically: “This will not count as an advantage for the ruling party in 2027. As I have said before, this does not diminish any political party. Electoral strength is determined only during elections, not by the defection of governors. Kano, for instance, remains an NNPP state until the next election.”

He continued: “A governor may defect or plan to defect, but that does not change the political complexion of the state. If you look at the 2023 electoral map, it clearly shows that elections are contests decided by voters.”

The ADC’s Abdullahi reinforced this argument with concrete examples: “We have evidence of this from the last election. In Delta State, the governor belonged to one party, yet another party won the election. The same thing happened in Edo, and the same in Lagos, as a matter of fact. So, the situation is not as bad as it is being portrayed.”

Labour Party’s Interim National Chairman Senator Nenadi Usman employed a Hausa proverb to make a similar point: “I would reply by giving you a proverb in Hausa that says, just because all the governors have trooped to one side does not really mean that you should conclude that the opposition is not going to have any impact come 2027. I don’t really look at it like that.”

These responses highlight a fundamental distinction between institutional power (controlled by governors and party structures) and electoral power (wielded by voters). While governors bring resources, political machinery, and administrative advantages, they cannot guarantee that voters will follow their lead.

The APC Perspective: Homecoming, Not Defection

From the APC’s vantage point, Governor Yusuf’s move represents validation rather than opportunism. APC Director of Publicity Bala Ibrahim framed the defection as a return to familiar territory, noting that Yusuf was initially an APC member in 2014 before joining the NNPP.

Ibrahim stated: “The party is looking forward to his arrival. After all, he was once a member of the APC before defecting to another party, the NNPP, so this move is more like a homecoming. While the party awaits his formal registration, it is expected that the national leadership will take a position once he officially joins.”

He dismissed opposition criticism as wishful thinking: “As for claims from the PDP, ADC, LP and NNPP, including statements about Governor Yusuf and other defecting governors, that Nigerians will work with opposition parties to remove the APC in 2027, such wishes are simply speculation. While wishful thinking is allowed in a free society, it does not necessarily reflect the will of the majority.”

Governor Yusuf himself attempted to frame his decision in developmental rather than partisan terms: “This is not just a political move; it is a step to ensure that governance remains people-centred and that our developmental agenda reaches every corner of Kano State.” He added: “Our focus is on building unity, strengthening political cooperation, and ensuring that the people benefit from effective governance, irrespective of party affiliations.”

The Kwankwaso Factor and Internal Tensions

The defection has created visible fault lines, particularly in Governor Yusuf’s relationship with his political godfather, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former governor and leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement. Yusuf’s rise in Kano politics was built on decades of loyalty to this movement, making his departure particularly significant.

Adding to the intrigue, Deputy Governor Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo was conspicuously absent from Governor Yusuf’s first public appearance after announcing his NNPP resignation. Reports indicate that Gwarzo has aligned more closely with Kwankwaso during the political crisis, even receiving him at the airport while the governor was preparing his exit. This visible split suggests the defection may have fractured not just party structures but personal political relationships built over decades.

What 2027 Really Holds

Governor Yusuf himself seemed to acknowledge the uncertainty of political fortunes when he stated: “Whatever decision we take, it is God that destined it. And we have believe He will guide us. For me, the people come first, before 2027. Only God knows tonight, tomorrow or next who will live to see them not to even talk about 2027. We believe when we get there, God will see us through.”

This philosophical stance contrasts sharply with the confidence exuded by both the APC and its critics. The reality is that Nigeria’s 2027 elections will be determined by multiple factors: economic performance, security conditions, individual candidate appeal, party organization, and voter mobilization. While gubernatorial defections may shift institutional advantages, they cannot guarantee electoral outcomes in a system where voters have repeatedly demonstrated independence from elite preferences.

The Kano defection saga ultimately raises questions that extend beyond one state or one governor. It forces Nigerians to confront fundamental issues about political loyalty, the nature of electoral mandates, and whether political parties represent genuine ideological movements or simply vehicles for accessing power. As the 2027 elections approach, the answer to these questions may determine not just who wins, but what kind of democracy Nigeria becomes.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to Top