A wave of high-profile defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress is fueling a fierce national debate over whether Nigeria is witnessing a healthy political realignment or a dangerous slide towards a one-party state, setting the stage for a contentious 2027 general election.
By Nij Martin
The political landscape in Nigeria is undergoing a seismic shift. As the 2027 general elections loom, a wave of defections has seen governors and influential politicians from the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others cross over to President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC). This mass migration has ignited a fiery debate: is Africa’s most populous democracy on the verge of becoming a de facto one-party state?
The evidence of consolidation is striking. Governors Peter Mbah of Enugu and Douye Diri of Bayelsa recently led their state executives and lawmakers into the APC, with speculation swirling that the governors of Rivers, Abia, Plateau, and Taraba may soon follow. The result is a dramatic alteration of the political map. In the South, the APC now governs 11 of 17 states, while in the North, it firmly controls 13 of 19. The opposition is not just weakened; it appears to be in a state of collapse.
Opposition leaders are sounding the alarm, framing this not as politics-as-usual but as an existential threat to democratic health. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) stated, “the recent defections by the governors of Enugu and Bayelsa States validate the African Democratic Congress’ long-standing warning that President Bola Tinubu is determined to turn Nigeria into a one-party state, no matter the cost to democracy or national stability.” This sentiment is echoed by prominent figures who see the defections as an act of betrayal. Former Bayelsa Governor Seriake Dickson warned, “I don’t believe that Nigeria should be a one-party state,” lamenting that the trend is “making Nigeria look small” and “belittling the country’s democracy.”
For defectors like Minister Nyesom Wike, however, the move is a pragmatic endorsement of “decisive leadership.” He argues that President Tinubu’s economic management has made it possible for states to pay salaries and embark on projects, asking, “if for that reason, so many people are going to support Mr President, I think it is worthwhile.”
This perspective is fiercely contested. Critics, including Atiku Abubakar’s camp, allege that the defections are not voluntary but coerced. They claim “the Tinubu-led APC has used institutions of the state, including anti-corruption agencies, to intimidate and coerce leaders of the opposition into their fold.” From this viewpoint, the “wave” is less a vote of confidence and more a survival tactic, with Atiku’s spokesman declaring, “the battle line has been drawn.”
Peter Obi of the Labour Party dismisses the notion of “capture,” insisting “we are not in a military time when you capture people,” and that true leadership is about persuasion. Yet, his supporters see a sinister pattern. Yunusa Tanko, a key Obi ally, stated that defectors are acting “based on the intimidation and manipulation of the current holders of office,” and predicted that Nigerians would “take their pound of flesh in 2027.”
Amid the turmoil, commentators like Reno Omokri offer a constitutional defense, arguing that a one-party state only exists where opposition is outlawed, not where citizens freely associate. He contends people are joining the APC because of tangible economic progress, citing growth figures and reduced oil theft.
The fundamental question remains: can a democracy thrive without a strong, viable opposition? The collapse of competitive politics risks creating a system where accountability diminishes and the government faces no credible challenge. As the ADC aptly put it, the 2027 election is now shaping up to be “a clear battle between the people of Nigeria and President Tinubu and his gang of governors in the APC.” Whether this battle will be fought on a level playing field, or in a political arena overwhelmingly dominated by one party, will be the ultimate test for Nigerian democracy.