Yemi Kale, group chief economist at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), has raised concerns that Nigeria’s recent overhaul of its inflation data may be technically flawed and could be masking the country’s worsening cost-of-living crisis. Speaking at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) economic outlook in Lagos, Kale said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) appeared to have rushed the transition to a new Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework without sufficient technical safeguards.
The rebasing exercise, which moved the CPI base year from 2009 to 2024, resulted in headline inflation falling sharply from over 34 per cent to about 15 per cent. The sudden drop has sparked widespread scepticism among Nigerians, who say the figures do not reflect prevailing market prices. Kale, who served as Nigeria’s statistician-general for 10 years and led the country’s 2014 GDP rebasing, said public concerns about the credibility and consistency of the new inflation data were valid.
He explained that international statistical standards require old and new inflation series to be aligned over a minimum 12-month period to preserve continuity and enable meaningful year-on-year comparisons. By declaring previous CPI figures non-comparable while introducing a new 2025 inflation series, Kale said the NBS had created a gap in inflation tracking that complicates analysis and weakens confidence in the data.