Recent polling indicates that Vice President JD Vance’s chances of becoming the 2028 Republican presidential nominee are declining, with McLaughlin & Associates showing his once-wide lead over Donald Trump Jr. shrinking from 20–28 points earlier in the year to just 10 points in November.
While Vance remains the top-polled potential GOP contender, analysts say his numbers are being dragged down by President Trump’s falling approval rating, as Mark Shanahan noted that Vance is “so closely tied to this Administration” that he “suffers” when Trump’s ratings drop.
Other surveys, including those by YouGov and Echelon Insights, still place Vance comfortably ahead, though the overall trend suggests tightening support as Republicans speculate about a 2028 field that could include figures like Ted Cruz. All quotes remain intact.