Escalating conflict in the Middle East has triggered a global oil price spike, threatening to drive up Nigerian pump prices due to the country’s persistent reliance on foreign crude feedstock and imported refined fuels.
Energy experts and downstream operators have warned that Nigeria could face a fresh surge in petrol and diesel prices if global crude oil costs exceed $90 per barrel, driven by the dramatic escalation of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Following the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, global oil prices jumped 10 percent over the weekend as major oil tankers halted movements near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for 20 percent of the world’s oil.
Despite the Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently lowering its gantry price to N774 per litre in February 2026, analysts like Kelvin Emmanuel of Dairy Hills noted that the refinery remains vulnerable because “about 12 million barrels are imported” monthly, leaving it exposed to rising international feedstock costs and war risk insurance premiums. While an eight-member OPEC+ group agreed to a “production adjustment” of 206,000 barrels per day to stabilize the market, experts like Olatide Jeremiah argue that “Nigerians should brace for higher fuel prices” on Monday as the country continues to grapple with insufficient domestic crude supply and a 40 percent reliance on imported refined products.