A stark warning has been issued over what is described as a coordinated effort to cripple political opposition in Nigeria through the arrest of its leading figures. The alarm, raised by activist and public affairs analyst Adekunle Adebayo on behalf of a civil society group, alleges a plot targeting former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, among others.
In a statement released on Tuesday, Adebayo framed the alleged plan not as isolated law enforcement, but as a strategic political project. He warned it forms part of a wider strategy to weaken opposition politics and entrench a de facto one-party system in the country. The move, he claims, follows a pattern of earlier arrests and detentions, including those of former Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami.
The list of those allegedly marked is extensive and crosses regional and political lines. Alongside Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi, the group names former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai. The targeting of el-Rufai is described as especially revealing, noting his administration has already been under intense scrutiny for over two years without established evidence of personal wrongdoing. Other prominent figures cited include former Communications Minister Isa Ali Pantami, former Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola, and political stalwart Kashim Ibrahim Imam.
According to the group’s statement, the initiative is allegedly coordinated from the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) and executed through a multi-agency task force. The tactics are said to include selective arrests, prolonged detention without charge, and the coercion of political figures to defect to the ruling party. Furthermore, the strategy reportedly involves disrupting lawful opposition meetings, engineering internal factionalisation within parties, and using endless litigation to drain opposition resources.
The core of the warning rests on constitutional grounds. Adebayo argues that executing these alleged plans would represent a grave assault on Nigeria’s democratic foundations. He explicitly cites threats to the rights to personal liberty, freedom of association and expression, and equality before the law, as enshrined in the 1999 Constitution. Perhaps most critically, he highlights the danger to judicial independence, a cornerstone of any functioning democracy.
“Selective application of law enforcement based on political affiliation is incompatible with constitutional democracy,” Adebayo stated. This sentence cuts to the heart of the concern: that legal instruments are being weaponised for political ends rather than applied impartially for justice.
The statement concludes with a call to action, urging Nigerians, civil society organisations, and the international community to closely monitor unfolding events. The final caution is dire: the country risks sliding into a system where democratic institutions exist only in form, while real political power is consolidated through coercion and selective justice. In essence, the warning is that Nigeria stands at a precipice, where the coming weeks could determine whether it remains a multi-party democracy or devolves into an authoritarian state masquerading under democratic rituals.