Despite fervent support from Obidient loyalists insisting on “Peter Obi or nothing,” political analysts and ADC leaders warn that the former Anambra governor faces significant hurdles in securing the party’s 2027 presidential ticket, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar positioned as the overwhelming favorite if primaries proceed as expected.
by Nij Martin
When Peter Obi officially joined the African Democratic Congress on December 31, 2025, his supporters erupted in celebration. The Obidient Movement, which had propelled the former Anambra governor to a surprisingly strong third-place finish in the 2023 presidential election, saw the move as the beginning of a victorious 2027 campaign. Their message was clear and uncompromising: Peter Obi must be the ADC’s presidential candidate, or they would walk away.
But three weeks into this new political arrangement, cracks are already appearing. Party leaders are sounding alarms about divisive rhetoric, political analysts are questioning Obi’s chances in a competitive primary, and tensions between rival camps threaten to destabilize the opposition coalition before it even gets off the ground. The central question facing the ADC—and Nigerian politics—is whether the Obidient Movement’s unwavering loyalty will secure their candidate’s path to the presidency or undermine it entirely.
The “Obi or Nothing” Dilemma
The ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bola Abdullahi, didn’t mince words during the party’s virtual Coalition Hours on Saturday. Speaking directly to the growing friction within the party, he issued a stark warning to supporters promoting what he called a “must-be-my-candidate” mindset.
“Those supporting this divisiveness by supporters of any of the aspirants should stop what they are doing because they are clearly working to the advantage of the APC and President Bola Tinubu,” Abdullahi said. “Saying it is either this candidate or nothing is not helpful, because getting the ticket alone means nothing. What is important is winning the election, and we cannot carry this divisiveness and expect to win.”
His words were aimed squarely at the vocal faction of Obi’s supporters who have made their position abundantly clear across social media platforms and in public statements. The rhetoric has become so pronounced that party leaders from various camps have begun expressing concern about its impact on coalition unity.
Abdullahi specifically addressed the Obidient faithful: “Those shouting ‘Peter Obi or nothing’ are equally not helping him. They are preaching division, and they are not selling him. They are not providing the room for people to support him from other places. They should stop making other people take hard stances because everyone needs to be on board for us to win this election.”
The party secretary’s intervention reflects a deeper anxiety within ADC leadership. According to findings by Sunday PUNCH, “some ADC leaders, especially northerners displeased with what they described as the overbearing attitude of Obi’s promoters, had begun to withdraw from him.” This development suggests that the very strategy Obi’s supporters believe will secure his nomination may actually be pushing potential allies away.
The Atiku Factor: A Formidable Obstacle
While Obidient supporters maintain their fervent belief in their candidate’s inevitability, political observers paint a starkly different picture. Dr. Umar Ardo, convener of the League of Northern Democrats and a former governorship aspirant, offered perhaps the most blunt assessment of Obi’s prospects during an appearance on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily.
“Well, the ADC, as it is currently constituted, if it goes for primaries a hundred times, Atiku will win a hundred times. There is absolutely no doubt about that. How Peter Obi and his supporters react is what will determine the election,” Ardo stated emphatically.
His reasoning is rooted in political mathematics and party structure. Atiku Abubakar, who joined the ADC in November—one month before Obi—brings with him decades of political experience, extensive networks across Nigeria’s political establishment, and proven ability to navigate party machinery. As a former vice president who has contested and won presidential primaries multiple times, Atiku understands the mechanics of internal party competitions in ways that Obi, who has historically been “anointed” rather than elected through competitive primaries, may not.
Ardo was explicit about the conditions under which Obi could secure the ticket: “I am not saying that Peter Obi cannot be the candidate of the party; however, he can only be the candidate of the party if Atiku steps down.”
This assessment was echoed by former presidential adviser Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who took the analysis even further during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today. Baba-Ahmed suggested that Obi’s political history reveals a pattern incompatible with competitive primaries.
“Peter Obi doesn’t do convention. He just goes there to be anointed,” Baba-Ahmed said, pointing to Obi’s preference for consensus arrangements over contested elections. He added that “the only reason why Peter Obi would be in the ADC is because he’s going to be the flag bearer of the ADC,” suggesting that Obi entered the coalition with expectations of coronation rather than competition.
Baba-Ahmed also predicted significant fallout regardless of the outcome: “So, the ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly former Vice President Atiku will win the ticket, and when he does, some people will walk out.”
Internal Resistance and Regional Tensions
Beyond the headline-grabbing clash between Atiku and Obi supporters, deeper structural challenges are emerging within the ADC that could prove decisive in determining the party’s nominee.
Kingsley Ogga, Chairman of the ADC Chairmen’s Forum and Kogi State Chairman, told Sunday PUNCH that the attitude of Obi’s supporters was actively “hindering the party’s progress” and would be “detrimental to Obi’s aspirations.”
“We cannot just say because Obi is coming, everybody must say it must be him. In politics, there is no ‘must.’ It is God that gives power,” Ogga explained. “If they are saying it must be Obi, people of Amaechi will say it must be Amaechi, and people from Atiku side will say it must be Atiku. If we cannot get this thing done, these people who say ‘must’ will pull out if it is not their way.”
His assessment highlights a fundamental problem with the Obidient Movement’s approach: by insisting on their candidate’s exceptionalism, they risk triggering similar demands from other camps, potentially fragmenting the coalition entirely.
The regional dimension adds another layer of complexity. Many Obi supporters argue that after eight years of northern leadership under Muhammadu Buhari, the presidency should return to the South for an equivalent period. However, this argument hasn’t gained traction among ADC leaders focused on winning rather than zoning.
Speaking with Daily Trust, Abdullahi made clear that “the party was not focused on zoning but on repositioning itself as a credible alternative to the APC.” This position contradicts the expectations of Obidient supporters who view southern succession as both a matter of fairness and electoral strategy.
An ADC leader in Abuja, speaking anonymously to Sunday PUNCH, captured the prevailing anxiety: “While some leaders are drawing parallel lines along the two camps, some of us are threading the path of caution.” The source confirmed that while there wasn’t outright division yet, many stakeholders had “developed cold feet” about the trajectory of competition between the Atiku and Obi camps.
The Ultimatum from Obi’s Inner Circle
Compounding the challenge for party unity are the public ultimatums issued by some of Obi’s most prominent supporters. Activist Aisha Yesufu issued perhaps the most dramatic warning shortly after Obi’s defection to the ADC.
In a viral video, Yesufu declared: “Let me go back to the Mr Peter Obi conversation where people are like, ‘you should run as vice president.’ Me, and I’m giving you people my word now… if Peter Obi is running with anyone as the vice president, as the running mate to that person, I will work against that ticket. In my little capacity, I will work against that ticket. Even if I don’t support any other person, I will work against that ticket.”
Similarly, Professor Pat Utomi, a political economist and Obi ally, told Channels Television: “I can tell you that Peter Obi will contest for the presidency. The day he becomes somebody’s vice president, I walk away from his corner.”
These statements effectively eliminate any possibility of a compromise ticket that might unite the opposition coalition under shared leadership. They also demonstrate the all-or-nothing approach that ADC leaders warn could destroy the party’s electoral prospects before the campaign truly begins.
Voices of Moderation Within the Movement
Not all Obidient voices are singing from the same hymnal. Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, attempted to strike a more conciliatory tone when speaking with Sunday PUNCH.
“The truth about this is that we in the Obidient Movement are democratic. Whatever you see us do, we are only marketing our product and our product at this moment is Mr Peter Obi,” Tanko explained. “We will try as much as possible and we encourage our people not to be antagonistic. We are in a team and in a team, it is good that you sell your own product so that people will really value it.”
Similarly, Peter Ameh, National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties and an Obi loyalist, defended the right of Obidient supporters to vigorously promote their candidate.
“I’ve never seen a process where people try to micromanage competitions. Sometimes, they are speaking in favour of their own candidate. But they don’t want Obi’s supporters to speak,” Ameh argued, framing the controversy as an attempt to silence Obi’s base rather than promote unity.
What the Numbers Actually Show
Ardo’s acknowledgment that Obi “controls more than six million votes” highlights why the ADC wants him in the coalition despite the tensions his supporters create. That voter base represents genuine electoral value, particularly in southern Nigeria where the APC faces significant challenges.
However, six million passionate supporters don’t automatically translate into control of party structures or delegate votes in a primary election. Atiku’s strength lies not in social media movements but in relationships with party officials, experience navigating delegate politics, and understanding of how internal party elections actually function.
The ADC adopted a coalition structure specifically to unite disparate opposition forces. Under the leadership of former Senate President David Mark as National Chairman and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary, the party has been working to build credible structures nationwide. But that very structure—designed for broad representation—makes coronation impossible and competitive primaries inevitable.
The Intervention That Revealed the Crisis
Perhaps the most telling moment in this unfolding drama came when Atiku himself felt compelled to intervene publicly. After weeks of increasingly hostile exchanges on X (formerly Twitter) between his supporters and Obi’s, the former vice president issued an appeal for restraint.
“Anyone who insults Obi or Atiku do not mean well for the leaders, the Coalition ADC and for Nigeria and Nigerians. The only persons who benefit from such a civil war are the APC urban bandits who want to maintain the satanic status quo. We are better together!” Atiku wrote.
The fact that a leading presidential aspirant had to publicly call for his own supporters and those of his main rival to stop attacking each other speaks volumes about the depth of division within the coalition. Atiku’s intervention came in response to an X user identified as “Everest” who complained: “Atiku’s people want to insult Peter Obi without Atiku getting the heat back. Maybe they feel Atiku deserves respect and Peter Obi does not.”
Dele Momodu, an ADC chieftain and Atiku associate, added his own warning in a post titled “My Candid Advice to ADC: Avoid Another Wike Scenario.” Momodu cautioned against allowing any group to import “aggression and rambunctiousness” into the coalition, warning that attempts to secure the ticket through “donation and coronation” rather than democratic processes would weaken the party.
The Path Forward: Unity or Fracture?
Ralph Nwozu, a former national chairman of the ADC, attempted to downplay the significance of the tensions while acknowledging party leaders’ concerns. Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, he insisted that Obi himself remained committed to party unity.
“I was with Peter Obi yesterday (Friday), and he showed me the minutes of some of the Obidient meetings that he participated in, and he was very emphatic that this is about the country, not an individual,” Nwozu said.
He claimed that divisive voices represented less than five percent of Obi’s supporters and suggested that some hostile social media accounts weren’t even genuine ADC members but rather agents provocateurs working to “ensure that the chance of opposition parties in Nigeria is dead.”
However, Nwozu’s reassurances haven’t silenced concerns among party stakeholders. The ADC’s National Treasurer, Ibrahim Mani, emphasized that the party’s purpose transcended individual ambitions.
“What we are trying to do is to build a very strong, distinctive opposition party that will serve as an alternative to the people of this country,” Mani explained. “So, the party is not necessarily built or structured around any individual or their ambition.”
The 2027 Electoral Calculus
Abdullahi addressed another complicating factor: the uncertainty around when the 2027 elections will actually occur. If elections happen earlier than expected, the opposition would have less time for post-primary reconciliation.
“Whether the elections take place this year or next year, it will be double work for us and could also work against us,” Abdullahi said. “It will work against us because, as an opposition, we need time to heal wounds after our primaries, as we cannot afford to go into bruised primaries and then quickly put ourselves together for the elections.”
This concern underscores why party leaders view the current internecine warfare with such alarm. Every day spent managing factional disputes is a day not spent building campaign infrastructure, developing policy platforms, or preparing for the formidable challenge of unseating an incumbent president backed by significant state resources.
The Uncomfortable Truth
The evidence suggests that Obidient supporters’ expectations for a Peter Obi presidential nomination may be divorced from political reality. Unless Atiku voluntarily steps aside—which seems highly unlikely given his lifelong presidential ambitions and strong position within the party—Obi faces an uphill battle in securing the ADC ticket through competitive primaries.
The “Obi or nothing” rhetoric, rather than strengthening his position, appears to be creating exactly the kind of resistance that could ensure he gets nothing. By framing support for their candidate as non-negotiable and treating other aspirants as obstacles rather than potential coalition partners, some Obidient supporters are building walls rather than bridges.
As Abdullahi emphasized: “We believe that all our aspirants are eminently qualified, and vilifying anybody or any region is not helpful and will only make things more difficult. We are going to ignore people creating a sense of exceptionality and focus on what we are doing because we want to win this election.”
The ADC faces a stark choice: manage these competing ambitions into a functional coalition capable of challenging the APC, or fracture into rival factions that guarantee opposition defeat. For Peter Obi’s supporters, the equally stark reality is that their passionate devotion to their candidate may need to evolve into strategic flexibility if they truly want to see him—or anyone from the opposition—in Aso Rock come 2027.
The coming months will reveal whether the Obidient Movement can adapt to the realities of coalition politics, or whether their uncompromising stance will fulfill Baba-Ahmed’s prediction that “the ADC will bleed” after its convention, leaving the opposition weaker than before this coalition ever formed.