An Obi-led ADC ticket would erase him from the south-east map. If Peter Obi clinches the ADC nomination, Tinubu’s south-east prospects collapse instantly.
VIA THECABLE:
Tinubu is not merely facing headwinds, he is staring down a political hurricane that could sweep him out of power in 2027. The foundations of his coalition are cracking, and the political terrain is shifting violently beneath his feet as the warning lights are no longer blinking—they’re blazing.
The north is abandoning him. His 2023 northern numbers will not repeat themselves. The region’s most formidable political titans—Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir el‑Rufai, and Aminu Tambuwal—are now aligned squarely against him. These are not fringe actors; they are the custodians of northern political machinery. Together, they can strip Tinubu of more than 70% of the north-west and north-east vote. That is not a setback—it is a political decapitation.
An Obi-led ADC ticket would erase him from the south-east map. If Peter Obi clinches the ADC nomination, Tinubu’s south-east prospects collapse instantly. All five states would swing decisively to Obi. Not partially. Not competitively. Completely. Tinubu would be locked out of an entire geopolitical zone with no path to clawing back influence.
Strategic defections could detonate his national spread. If the governors of Bauchi and Oyo defect to ADC, the message is unmistakable: Tinubu’s coalition is bleeding from the inside. These are not symbolic defections—they are structural ruptures that undermine his claim to national reach and weaken his legitimacy narrative.
Even if Tinubu makes progress in the north-central and south-west, it remains insufficient. Nigeria’s presidency is not won by clinging to two regions while haemorrhaging support across the rest of the federation. The electoral arithmetic is brutal, and it is turning against him.