Nigeria ranked as Africa’s fifth-largest airline market in December 2025, recording 1.16 million scheduled passenger seats across domestic and international routes, according to OAG Monthly Airline Data Updates. The country trailed Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, and Ethiopia, while emerging as the only top-10 aviation market to post a year-on-year contraction, with capacity declining 3.7% from 1.20 million seats in December 2024. “This made Nigeria the only country among Africa’s top 10 aviation markets to record a contraction during the period,” the report stated. In contrast, Egypt expanded to 2.98 million seats, South Africa to 2.60 million, Morocco grew by over 13% to 2.03 million, and Tanzania led the continent’s domestic market surge at more than 20% year-on-year. Nigerian carriers faced persistent operational constraints, including maintenance bottlenecks and aircraft downtime, which weighed on seat supply.
In the domestic segment, Nigeria ranked second behind South Africa but suffered a steep 7.5% capacity decline, dropping from 919,400 seats in December 2024 to 850,420 in December 2025. “Maintenance issues and limited MRO facilities force airlines to send planes abroad for servicing, leaving aircraft out of service for months,” the report noted, adding that ongoing MRO projects by Air Peace, Ibom Air, and others were yet to become operational. Leasing capacity also remained constrained, with only one airline qualified for dry-lease aircraft as of December 2025, limiting carriers to costlier wet-lease arrangements or direct purchases. The report emphasised that dry leases are vital because they “give airlines full control over operations, scheduling, and costs.” Nigeria’s removal from the Aircraft Working Group (AWG) watchlist in October 2024 has begun improving access to global leasing markets, offering medium-term optimism for fleet expansion and capacity recovery.