by El Rami
This is perhaps the most important question underlying the entire 2027 discussion—not whether Atiku can win, but whether Nigeria needs him to try again.
The Case Against a Seventh Attempt
1. Generational Transition
Nigeria’s median age is approximately 18 years. The country is overwhelmingly young, yet political leadership remains stubbornly geriatric. Atiku will be 81 by inauguration in 2029. The question becomes: does a nation of young people, facing 21st-century challenges, need leadership shaped by 20th-century politics?
Eze-Onyebuchi Chukwu captured this frustration: “Rather than aspiring to run again in 2027, Atiku should rally his political allies to support a young, credible Nigerian. It’s time to return power to the youths. Atiku challenged Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, and Tinubu in 2023. Now he wants to contest again in 2027, is he the only one fit to be president?”
2. The Cycle of Recycling
Nigeria has been stuck in a political loop where the same faces—Atiku, Tinubu, Obasanjo, Buhari—dominate for decades. This prevents new ideas, fresh energy, and innovative approaches to governance. At some point, persistence becomes obstruction of generational renewal.
3. Divisive Track Record
One analysis bluntly stated: “The worst possible outcome of the 2023 presidential election would have been an Atiku Abubakar victory. That would have established such a bad and dangerous precedent, causing serious damage to Nigeria’s unity and worsening the country’s already problematic management of diversity.”
His 2023 campaign, which violated zoning and fractured the PDP, demonstrated that personal ambition can override institutional cohesion and national unity.
4. Pattern of Impermanence
Atiku’s political history shows a pattern: enter party, contest election, lose, disappear, repeat. He’s never stayed to rebuild institutions from grassroots after defeat. This suggests transactional rather than transformational politics.
5. The Question of Legacy
At 78, with an already distinguished career as vice president and businessman, does Atiku’s legacy benefit from yet another loss? Or does continuing diminish what he’s already achieved?
The Case For a Seventh Attempt
1. Experience Matters
Nigeria faces existential crises—economic collapse, insecurity, institutional decay. Supporters argue this isn’t the time for on-the-job learning. Atiku’s eight years as vice president during Nigeria’s economic resurgence give him unique governing experience.
Abdul-Aziz Na’ibi Abubakar articulated this: “As a visionary leader, he possesses a clear readiness to address Nigeria’s and Africa’s pressing challenges with innovative and practical solutions.”
2. The Absence of Alternatives
Who else in the opposition has Atiku’s combination of national reach, financial resources, governmental experience, and cross-regional networks? Peter Obi has passion but limited administrative experience. Kwankwaso has regional appeal but national limitations. El-Rufai is toxic outside the North.
Dele Momodu made this point forcefully: “The only opposition leader who’s meticulously and practically pursuing his dreams and seems to understand what it takes to be competitive is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.”
3. The Economic Emergency
Nigeria’s current economic trajectory is unsustainable. Tinubu’s reforms have created unprecedented hardship. Atiku publicly criticized these policies and offered alternatives. Does Nigeria have the luxury of dismissing experienced economic managers during a crisis?
4. Democratic Legitimacy
In a democracy, who decides whether someone should run? If Atiku meets constitutional requirements and can mobilize support, doesn’t he have the right to contest? Should age alone disqualify competent candidates?
Demola Olanrewaju defended this: “We don’t give up on our aspirations. His Excellency Atiku has made it clear he wants to be the President of Nigeria. As long as he’s healthy, as long as he’s fit, he would always put himself forward.”
5. Institutional Knowledge
Atiku witnessed Nigeria’s democratic transition, worked in government during economic reforms, understands bureaucratic machinery, and has deep knowledge of policy implementation. In a country where institutions are weak, this institutional memory has value.
The Nuanced Middle Ground
Perhaps the question isn’t binary. Nigeria might need Atiku’s experience and resources—but not as president. Consider alternative roles:
Elder Statesman/Kingmaker: Use his networks and resources to identify, fund, and support younger candidates. His blessing could be more valuable than his candidacy.
Coalition Builder: Serve as the unifying figure who brings opposition elements together around a younger candidate, much like he stepped aside for Abiola in 1993.
Policy Advisor: Offer his economic expertise to the next generation of leaders without seeking the office himself.
Institution Builder: Finally stay in one party long enough after an election to build it from the grassroots, leaving a structural legacy beyond personal ambition.
What Nigeria Actually Needs
Setting Atiku aside, what does Nigeria need in 2027?
- Generational Bridge: Someone experienced enough to govern competently but young enough to understand 21st-century Nigeria and serve long enough to see reforms through.
- Unity Over Division: A candidate who builds coalitions through inclusion rather than demographic calculations that alienate regions.
- Institutional Commitment: A leader who strengthens parties and institutions, not just personal networks.
- Economic Competence: Someone with proven capacity to manage complex economic reforms without creating catastrophic hardship.
- Fresh Vision: New ideas for Nigeria’s challenges, not recycled solutions from decades past.
The Uncomfortable Truth
The fact that Atiku remains the opposition’s most formidable candidate 32 years after his first attempt reveals more about the opposition’s bankruptcy than Atiku’s indispensability. A healthy democracy produces new leadership regularly. Nigeria’s failure to do so is a symptom of deeper dysfunction.
As one assessment concluded: “Atiku Abubakar’s story is not merely about losing elections. It is the story of a man who once stood at the centre of national goodwill, then slowly allowed ambition to outrun coalition-building.”
The Final Answer
Does Nigeria need Atiku’s seventh attempt?
Need? No. Nigeria needs generational renewal, institutional building, and fresh approaches to governance.
Want? Maybe. If the alternative is another four years of policies creating mass suffering, voters might choose familiar experience over uncertain change.
Deserve? That’s complicated. Atiku has paid his dues in Nigerian politics. But Nigeria also deserves leaders who know when to pass the torch.
The tragedy isn’t that Atiku keeps running—it’s that Nigeria’s opposition has failed to produce credible alternatives that would make his running unnecessary. Until that changes, we’ll keep seeing 78-year-olds tracing maps of a country that desperately needs younger hands to chart its future.
Perhaps Atiku’s greatest contribution to Nigeria in 2027 wouldn’t be running for president a seventh time—but using his influence to ensure someone from the next generation wins. That would be a legacy worth more than any presidency.