Arctic ice melt has slowed over the past 20 years due to natural climate cycles, but scientists warn faster losses will follow.
Arctic sea ice is melting more slowly than expected despite record global heat, according to a new study published Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters. Researchers found that between 2005 and 2024, sea ice declined at its slowest rate for any 20-year stretch since satellite tracking began in 1979. Using two datasets, scientists determined the melt rate was at least twice as slow as the long-term average.
“Even though there is increased emissions [and] increased global temperatures, you can still get periods where you have very minimal loss of Arctic sea ice for sustained periods,” said Mark England, the study’s lead author.
Experts attribute the slowdown to natural climate cycles that may have cooled Arctic waters, offsetting some human-driven warming. However, researchers caution the reprieve is temporary, predicting ice loss will accelerate within the next decade. “This temporary period can’t go on forever,” England said. “It’s bit like a kind of sugar rush. It feels good … and at some point it will kind of crash.”