“Over 20% of Canadians are worried about losing their jobs, and the CFIB barometer shows a steep drop in business confidence… “
Canada may already be entering a recession, according to economists, including TD Bank’s Chief Economist Beata Caranci. She warned that global geopolitical tensions have worsened consumer and business confidence in both the U.S. and Canada—but in Canada, sentiment has plummeted below even pandemic levels.
“In just the last two months, 75,000 jobs were lost—half in manufacturing,” Caranci said. TD now forecasts another 100,000 job cuts by Q3, with unemployment potentially rising to 7.2%.
While U.S. sentiment remains disconnected from growth, Canada is seeing fear translate into real economic decline. TD expects GDP to shrink in Q2 and Q3.
Despite these signals, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has delayed its budget and announced a $5.6 billion tax cut yielding only $32 for average earners.
“This won’t stimulate spending,” Caranci noted, urging targeted support like green renovation credits or a GST holiday.
Without action, she warned, “Canada could be firmly in a recession by September.”